R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com With just two phases of polling to go, and with no undercurrents of any mood reversal visible in the electorate so far, two things can be said with a fair degree of certainty: the NDA will win, and Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister. The only elements of doubt pertain to two related issues: will the current NDA combine get to 272 on its own or it will need more post-poll allies; and what will be the BJP's own score in this 272-plus scenario (below 200 or above it)?
Above 200, Modi will be unstoppable; below 200 he will have to stoop to scoop up new allies. In either scenario, we still have him as PM. The only scenario where his elevation will be in some doubt is if the BJP falls below 180, but no one is talking about this possibility.
So this is as good a time as any to speculate about the composition of the next government led by Modi after 16 May. Contrary to what many Modi-baiters may think, the fact is he is not likely to bring about radical changes in the cabinet system, and barring the odd person or two, I would expect to see many of the old NDA faces in a Modi government. The only faces from Vajpayee's NDA who will not be there are LK Advani and Jaswant Singh. Advani, for obvious reasons, cannot work under his prot�g�, and Jaswant has been shown the door. But old allies like Shiv Sena and Akali Dal could send in new faces, given their own generational changes, and new allies will obviously bring new hands to the deck.
Any Modi government will be determined by his own choice of areas he wants to show progress, and political pressures from his party and the allies. Those who think he will concentrate all power in his hands are surely going to be dead wrong, for it is simply not possible unless the BJP wins 350 seats on its own – which too is not something anyone is even considering as even a distant possibility. In short, Modi is not going to run a one-man show.
These are the pressures that will operate on Modi if he wins.
�#1: The pre- and post-allies will have to be accommodated. This means many portfolios will be negotiated by forces outside Modi's span of political control. For example, the Akalis and Shiv Sena will seek good portfolios, and so will Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, which will bring in many seats from Seemandhra. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP and Modi's rainbow coalition in Tamil Nadu will need portfolios too. If the BJP is short of 272, it will need a Jayalalithaa or a Naveen Patnaik to form a government. And possibly a TRS from Telangana. They will be accommodated.
#2: Internal BJP allies and partners will have to be accommodated. Modi didn't get where he is without help. Rajnath Singh, who will not be in the cabinet, played a huge role in smoothening Modi's passage from CM to PM candidate. Many of the UP candidates will owe some degree of allegiance to him, and Modi will surely oblige. Moreover, Modi's close CM allies – Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh – will surely be entitled to put some of their nominees in government.
#3: Even BJP powers that are not Modi camp-followers – including Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi – will not be ignored. Modi may want to have his own people everywhere, but he knows that he also needs the state-level strengths brought by a Chouhan. Sushma and Joshi will surely be given decent portfolios – if only to avoid overt disgruntlement.
#4: Modi's external allies – Baba Ramdev and the RSS – will have some contributions to make in cabinet formation.
#5: Modi himself, of course, is not going to be someone who will just accept everyone's nominees. He has been in the race for PM, one suspects, partly to put 2002 behind him, and this means he will want performers in key ministries, even if they are not politicians with their own bases. Moreover, Modi may have particular interests in specific ministries which are sensitive politically to his priorities and those of his party.
#6: The last consideration will be regional representation. Many of the junior ministers may thus come from regions where the BJP may have few (or no) seats (for example, Kerala and West Bengal).
Given this backdrop, what is the most likely composition of a Modi government? It is best to look at portfolios that will be crucial to Modi's success and match them with the talent available to fit the bill.
Finance: Since this election is about the economy, finance will be the most critical portfolio. And here all signals points to one candidate: Arun Jaitley, the BJP's most articulate spokesman, who could be the MP elected from Amritsar if all goes well. He has been talking a lot of the economy. Modi himself hinted at an Amritsar rally recently that Jaitley will get an important portfolio – though not in so many words. Jaitley is thus likely to get the job. A junior minister here could be Piyush Goyal, with other junior ministers coming from allied parties.
Defence: Modi's keen interest in building a domestic defence industry and strengthening national security means he will want a competent minister here who will do a good job. Given the succession tussles now underway in the army, and the poor performance of the UPA in terms of modernisation and upgradation of the country's defence preparedness, Modi would need a sane and sensible minister here. The job could go to anybody Modi trusts – even a heavyweight suggested by Rajnath Singh. Modi may even retain the job with himself for a while.
External Affairs: This ministry will probably be given to someone familiar with economic diplomacy, a key Modi idea. Yashwant Sinha, who has been both finance minister and foreign minister, would be a perfect fit, but he has not contested the Lok Sabha polls this time, having got a ticket for his son Jayant instead. But if Jayant is not to be accommodated in the ministry if he wins, Sinha should be a possibility for the job.
