Rupee fell to over two-month low against greenback on Friday, marking its fourth straight weekly loss, weighed down by persistent dollar buying by oil companies. However, there were speculations of RBI intervening in the market at around 55.50 levels via state-run banks. The rupee has lost 3.6 percent of its value over these four weeks, with global markets weakening and amid growing worries about whether the government can contain the fiscal deficit and push through reforms in the winter session of parliament that kicked off this week. The partially convertible rupee closed at 55.5350/5450 per dollar versus its previous close of 55.21/22.
Investors are keenly waiting to see if the government can pass key reforms such as foreign direct investment in pension and insurance, as well as the banking amendment bill. Failure to pass any of the key reforms could even eventually push the rupee down towards 56.50-57.00 levels. Rupee is expected to open with a mild appreciation, tracking gains in Euro and other risky assets. Euro zone finance ministers meet today for a third time in as many weeks to hammer out a deal to get international lenders to release aid to Greece before debt repayments due mid-December. The USD/INR pair is expected to trade in a range of 55.20-55.60.
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