On Wednesday, Indian rupee weighed up by 0.54 percent to close at 54.5575 against US Dollar following Asian indices and euro which edged above 1.33 in the late night trading session. Asian stock market closed with higher note of more than two percent along with Indian stock market weighed up as optimism in the market with the intention of government would take more measures to boost the economic growth. SENSEX rose 111.25 points to close at 19476.00 and NIFTY advanced 32.80 points to 5929.60. German IFO numbers have improved except the current assessment. The euro zone current account surplus has also improved from 0.8B to 7.2B which was supported European stock market to moved up whereas euro close on weaker note of 1.3227. The US housing start data declined from 894K to 861K and going on concern over fiscal cliff made US stock market to climbed down while Dollar index surged 0.11% to 79.355.
Outlook:
This morning Asian stock market as well as the shared currency Euro is trading on a weaker note of 1.3220, down by 0.05%. This weakness may extend to Indian rupee which is likely to open down. However, economic releases across the globe may put some impact on Indian rupee. From Europe, euro-zone will release consumer Confidence and Germany will release producer price which are likely to be slightly positive and support the shared currency to move up and extending gains rupee. While lots of data expectation from US which are expected to have mix impact on US Dollar is likely to cap gains. Overall we expect the opening of Indian rupee could be a weak note while as the day progress it could remain mixed.
USDINR Spot-
As expected, USDINR remained on weaker note on Wednesday after opening with a gap down at 54.90 and finally settled at 54.52 losing 0.58%. Pair has declined till the supports of 50% Fibonacci retracement level for move ranging from (54.01-55.05). Momentum indicator RSI-14 has declined from the high of 0.54 to 0.48 levels and is indication further weakness in the pair in coming days. For today, we expect USDINR to open marginally higher and if it manages to sustain above 50% retracement level of 54.50, we could see a marginal pull back coming in the pair.
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