The rupee weakened on Tuesday, hurt by dollar demand from oil firms and companies, but demand for the local currency from custodian banks prevented a sharper slide. The rupee had opened close to a two-week high against the greenback, supported by some custodian inflows and rise in other Asian currencies. The dollar was weak against the Asian currencies on improved risk appetite after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday said the central bank would make every effort to stay on course with its monetary easing measures.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 54.6150/6250 per dollar versus its previous close of 54.4950/5050. However, onshore forward premiums rose after the central bank said it would start a special window to provide exporters dollar credit. RBI's decision on Monday to open a special window to provide exporters with dollar credit could have been done in anticipation of dollar shortages, especially starting in late February when the United States is expected to hit its debt ceiling limit.
NSE USDINR Fut tested the support level of 54.47 and then bounced back. Dollar is likely to trade positively today if we see dollar strengthen overnight. Then look for target of 55.00 odd levels and above that at 55.15 levels. Otherwise retest of support is seen at 54.45 and eventual breakdown. Below this next support is seen at 54.30 and 54.05 levels.
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