"A lot of the volatility and the weakness in Asian markets is not just external but there are fundamental headwinds in some of the large investable spaces within Asia," adds Garg. Garg bases his cautious outlook on Asia and emerging markets based on the Japanese and Chinese monetary policy.
Also read: Too many bullish FIIs pose a risk to market: Morgan Stanley
On the Indian market, Garg sees vulnerability in the short-term. Despite the market rallying on optimism, Garg has a short-term cautious stance on it.
Below is the edited transcript of Garg's interview to CNBC-TV18.
Q: Do you sense a palpable risk-off brewing in global equities? Or do you think it is just a temporary wind which will blow over?
A: If you look at the Asian and emerging markets in particular, they have already been lagging behind the developed markets for sometime. For example, if you look at Asia, India and other emerging markets and their performance vis-à-vis the US Asia, they have all have underperformed.
A lot of the volatility and the weakness in Asian markets is not just external but there are fundamental headwinds in some of the large investable spaces within Asia. So, I don't think this is only an externally driven uncertainty. However, we do have policy uncertainties coming up with US Budgetary cuts or atleast the discussion around that. There is also the Japanese monetary policy, Chinese policy so, all these are weighing in factors and we are sitting on top of some reasonable gains in the markets. It is atleast a reasonable excuse for investors to take some money off the table. We are certainly cautious short-term in Asia and emerging markets.
Q: India has had disproportionately good run in terms of the flows that it has been getting and the observation seems to be that a lot of it was exchange traded funds (ETF) lead money. In that context, would you say India looks more vulnerable than other markets to this outflow situation?
A: From a money flow perspective, we have had substantial foreign institutional investor (FII) flows but we haven't seen the market do very much. The Nifty is been flat so far and we are sitting on valuation premiums now to the regional and emerging markets. We are sitting on a corporate earnings picture which still needs to turn substantially. So, there are fundamental question marks. The market's gone up on optimism, on some of the reforms that the Finance Minister is been talking about. So, there is vulnerability in the short-term. We do like India on a one year view but in the short-term our view is definitely cautious in India.
More to come.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
EMs' weakness not externally driven; cautious on India: JPM
Dengan url
https://rokokkanker.blogspot.com/2013/02/ems-weakness-not-externally-driven.html
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
EMs' weakness not externally driven; cautious on India: JPM
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
EMs' weakness not externally driven; cautious on India: JPM
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar