The Indian rupee strengthened on Wednesday, snapping a five-day losing streak, helped by gains in domestic share markets and the euro, and as the trade deficit did not widen as much as some analysts had feared. The partially convertible rupee closed at 53.82/83 per dollar versus its previous close of 53.85/86. Although India posted its second highest ever monthly trade deficit at $20 billion in January, that was well below market expectations of closer to $25 billion, as exports rose 0.8 per cent from a year earlier.
Markets are bracing for wholesale price inflation data on Thursday. A Reuter's poll expects the WPI to hit a three-year low of 7 per cent, a number below the 7.5 per cent that Reserve Bank of India Governor has previously called as "too high". The upcoming foreign investor debt limit auction of over $11 billion on Feb. 20 is also likely to boost the rupee with most of these funds likely to flow in before the sale date.
The pair traded in a range of only 16 paisa for the day. The pullback rally in dollar seems to be over. Dollar index is retreating from the gains it made last week. For the day pair has resistance at 54.05 levels. Any up move post this will find stiff resistance at 54.25 odd levels. Below 53.88 expect dollar to decline to 53.65-60 levels.
After gap down opening, Euro recouped its losses to close slightly above previous day. Short term trend in Euro is on the upside. Expect pair to test upper end of the range at 73.10 levels. For the support is seen at 72.45 and below that at 72.25 levels.
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