If the central bank disappoints then one should be ready for sharp intraday volatility in the banking index, which could hit the overall market sentiment, Mehraboon Irani of Nirmal Bang Securities said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
For the time being, one should stay away from the market although from a longer term perspective opt for buy on dips strategy, he recommended.
On specific stocks, Irani sees no short-term opportunities in NALCO or SAIL . He would prefer picking Tata Motors at Rs 275-280.
Below is the verbatim transcript of his interview on CNBC-TV18
Q: Are you going to buy the dip this morning or do you think the market will give you better opportunities?
A: For the first time I am witnessing that while people are expecting a 25 basis points cut coming in the RBI policy, at the same time people are little bit nervous about what is happening on the private sector banks front.
It is a very difficult call. Since, 25 basis points cut is already discounted largely by the market and if it doesn't happen, it could lead to a sharp intraday volatility tomorrow in the banking index which can have an impact on the overall market. I would possibly stay away from the market for the time being.
Sentiment has definitely taken a hit, especially looking at the way some of these PSU stocks have reacted. The PSU index is down nearly 12 percent over the last one and a half months. On the whole, people are not too enthused. So, should one buy into the dips? From a longer term angle yes.
Especially in case of private sector banks, which I feel whatever has to happen in terms of fall in the values right now should happen over the next one to three trading sessions. I don't see anything happening besides possibly a reprimand from the RBI or possibly a small penalty here and there, which should not affect the private sector banks in anyway.
So, if the private sector banks especially the top three names, which are right now involved in controversy, react by three-four percent and that could be lovely downturn opportunity.
Q: The Nalco issue went on pretty badly. The stock lost a lot of ground. SAIL is probably next. How would you approach that?
A: I have been very negative for over almost 12-18 months on PSU stocks on the whole. If you take away banks stocks or oil and gas stocks then on the whole, the entire pack is in very bad shape. This is largely due to the government's conflicting objectives. Pricing the issue nearly 10-15 percent lower than the prevailing market price, just a few days ago, shows the desperation on part of the government to get the numbers right on the fiscal deficit front.
In this particular scenario, taking a call and saying that SAIL maybe at Rs 60-70 is a great buy from a longer term angle or Nalco at Rs 40 is a great buy, I agree with that view. The factors in the market, going back to the valuation which they were seven months ago and with macro showing some signs of improving, are these PSU stocks outside oil and banking stocks are concerned a great opportunity or is it going to involve a lot of opportunity cost considering the stocks may do nothing over the shorter term till the time growth comes back into the economy. So, it is a very difficult call.
I would prefer to possibly keep my money idle and look at opportunities somewhere else rather than saying that SAIL is a complete long term buy or a Nalco is a great long-term buy. Although they would be, I am not disputing it considering the prices that they are going at. However, in the shorter term, I don't think there is an opportunity here.
Q: In this market volatility, if Tata Motors comes down to about Rs 280-285, would you buy it?
A: Yes, I suppose so. In fact Tata Motors remains the only decent pick right now in the market provided you give me a chance at around Rs 275-280, more or less, the same price around Rs 280-285.
I personally feel that there were reasons to believe that while the numbers from JLR never looked good and we had various voices including me stating that the numbers were rather muted, the fact is how does the stock react? Nothing much happened.
So, if Rs 275-280 comes, it is a decent opportunity. What is happening at JLR right now is that looking at the way Chinese market reacted last month because of the New Year and other things, there are reasons to believe that things will improve and Chinese customers will go back and buy the vehicles over there. I feel that for Tata Motors at Rs 275-280, the negatives would be built in. Unfortunately the stock has not come down that much.
Anda sedang membaca artikel tentang
Nirmal Bang cautions of sharp volatility if rate not cut
Dengan url
https://rokokkanker.blogspot.com/2013/03/nirmal-bang-cautions-of-sharp.html
Anda boleh menyebar luaskannya atau mengcopy paste-nya
Nirmal Bang cautions of sharp volatility if rate not cut
namun jangan lupa untuk meletakkan link
Nirmal Bang cautions of sharp volatility if rate not cut
sebagai sumbernya
0 komentar:
Posting Komentar