US retail sales numbers are published on Tuesday. Sales rebounded in November, reflecting delayed spending caused by uncertainty around the Federal government shutdown in October. Sales are expected to be flat or have risen slightly in December, with consensus forecasts pointing to a rise of 0.1 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent in November.
Consumer demand in both the US and UK was boosted in the latter part of last year by lower inflation.
However, Thursday's US inflation figures are likely to show that higher petrol prices during December pushed the headline measure to 1.5 per cent, from 1.2 per cent in November. The "core" measure, excluding energy and food, is likely to remain at 1.7 per cent.
With the household sector accounting for around 70 per cent of demand, the consumer will ultimately determine the viability of the US recovery. Friday's confidence index from the University of Michigan will give insight into households' views on their own financial situation and on prospects for the economy as a whole.
Industrial production numbers out on Friday will complete the important releases in the US. Survey data from the Institute for Supply Management is indicating an upturn in the manufacturing sector, and this is likely to be replicated in the official data.
UK retail sales figures, released on Friday, may highlight the fragility of recovery after much good news on the economy.
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Several large high street names have already reported disappointing sales during the Christmas period, although online sales have been relatively robust.
A small rise in sales during the month is expected, of around 0.4 per cent.
UK households have been hit by six years of falling real wages. Some recovery in demand has resulted from sustained growth in full-time employment and lower inflation in the latter part of 2013.
Tuesday's release of inflation data for December may show annual inflation dropping below the Bank of England's target rate of 2 per cent for the first time since late 2009. The British Retail Consortium reported a large annual fall in shop prices in December, with evidence of significant discounting by retailers. Conversely, utility price increases announced late last year will have filtered into the index, but these may have had a negligible effect due to similar rises at the same stage of 2012.
In the medium term, inflation will trend lower due to a reduced pressure from global commodity prices and the recent appreciation of sterling. Lower inflation should give policy makers some breathing space, allowing the Bank of England to postpone a rise in interest rates.
In the eurozone, the main release of the week is November's industrial production data, out tomorrow. A strong reading is expected, following encouraging purchasing manager's reports for Germany and Italy. Thursday's final inflation numbers for December should confirm the initial estimate of 0.8 per cent, highlighting the concerns of the European Central Bank over the possibility of deflation.
On Wednesday, the German Federal Statistics Office will publish a preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the full year of 2013. Growth of 0.6 per cent is expected, broadly in line with analysts' forecasts at the start of the year.
In Japan, trade data published on Monday should show exports providing a continued impetus to growth.
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