Sell MCX Silver July; target of Rs 40500/39800: Karvy

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 20 Mei 2014 | 14.02

Karvy Commodities has come out with its report on bullion. According to the research firm, one can sell MCX Silver July at Rs 41200-41350 for the target price of Rs 40500/39800 with a stop loss of Rs 42000.

Karvy's report on bullion

We had a selling view in the Bullion complex yesterday wherein we particularly sold gold, in-line with our view in the weekly report as well. While there were no major cues for the commodity yesterday, movement in currency and equity as stated above led to late session sell-off. With Ukraine related developments taking a back seat currently, we feel downside pressure on the commodity would continue. Alongside this, speculation that new government in Indian would ease import taxes for Gold and silver are also likely to add to prices pressure locally. We advice selling the commodity from higher levels today. We have no major data from US today, however EU region inflation related cues would be watched closely.

GLOBAL MARKET ANALYSIS: Asian equities are trading mostly higher this morning taking positive cues out of the US stock markets overnight. From the currency space the dollar index has managed to claw back from yesterday's 79.88 low and currently trading firm above the 80 mark. At the same time the Euro and the pound sterling are quoting at 1.3712 and 1.6817 levels respectively, hardly any change from prior close. In commodities, we had a mixed to selling view in Bullion yesterday. For the day, while we have a bearish view in the two, we would caution investors against taking fresh positions in the ratio on selling side while those holding overnight positions are advised to keep strict stop loss. Economic data – There are a few numbers from Germany and lot to watch from the UK. There are no major cues from the US today.

Weekly Outlook: We had a selling bias in silver last week amidst weaker set of demand cues for the commodity though prices for active July contract at Comex advanced firmly lover 1.25% to $19.35 per ounce. In local markets though, we saw good decline in the range of 1% led by appreciation Rupee. Better performance during the international markets was probably was prompted by better performance in the industrial metals front wherein almost all metals added weight except Nickel in the LME. Overall as we keep our Gold view on the weaker side, broader factors for silver too point towards extended weakness in the commodity. As also stated above, ETF and physical consumption continues to lack fresh boost. The Ishare investment holdings for silver commodity has been stable for last two weeks with no change in institutional holdings. While the risk factor against our weak bias in the commodity is extended rise in base metals pack, we feel local MCX Silver prices would continue to be weighed by ongoing appreciation in the INR. We advice traders to initiate shorts in the commodity during the coming week, particularly at the domestic front on pullbacks.

Weekly call: MCX July: Sell at 41200-41350 TP 40500/39800 SL 42000

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