According to Angel Commodities, Cotton futures may trade on a mixed to negative note. Selling on higher levels may negative for the prices.
Kapas
Yesterday, Cotton complex traded on a negative note on availability of cotton in physical market and profit booking by stockiest in futures market on higher levels. MCX Cotton Dec Futures settled 0.57% lower and NCDEX Kapas April'15 settled 1.12% lower yesterday.
According to Cotton Association of India (CAI) cotton output in the country would stand around 402 lakh bales in season 2014-15, slightly lower than the production of previous season when it was 407.25 lakh bales. The expected fall in production in Gujarat has been considered the reason for the fall in production in the country. Gujarat is projected to produce 122 lakh bales of cotton this season compared to 129.5 lakh bales previous season.
In global markets, cotton prices have been moving in downward track since past few months. Weaker consumption in local and declining exports from major producing nations apart from China's new policy impacts have been adding concerns among buyers.
Cotton prices in China India and Pakistan have fallen by 25 to 30 per cent and on the international market the commodity has lost nearly 75 per cent from last year.
Domestic Production and Consumption
Last year in 2013-14 the cotton production in India was 3.75 crores of bales (one bale has 170 kilo cotton) and this year the soon coming bumper crop will be around 4 crores bales. In Madhya Pradesh the cotton growing area was 10 lakh hectares last year while production will be around 20 lakh bales this year.
India's cotton exports from India have dropped by 40 per cent year on year with prices declining upto 30 per cent for the same time period.
Global Cotton Updates (WASDE Report)
The U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for 2014/15 include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month. Production is reduced 474,000 bales, due mainly to a lower crop estimate for Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.6 million bales, or one-third of total disappearance. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at 59 to 64 cents per pound, an increase of 3 cents on the lower end of the range, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices.
Outlook
Cotton futures may trade on a mixed to negative note. Selling on higher levels may negative for the prices.
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