Rubber may bounce back to Rs 17400-17650: Geojit

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on Natural Rubber. According to the research firm, Rubber trend stays weak, now it requires clearing Rs 17100-17060 to continue the down trend possibly towards 16900-16800 region initially or more. If prices hold the support at Rs 17100-17060, could call for a brief pullback towards Rs 17400-17650. 

As a part of efforts to support prices and farmers, China has started stockpiling natural rubber and will buy between 150000- 200000 tonnes from the domestic market for the state reserves. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia will be meeting on 11th and 12th December in Phuket to seek ways to stabilise rubber prices.  Malaysia's natural rubber exports fall 3.4 per cent to 60337 tonnes in September on MoM basis. Vietnam is likely to be among the top three natural rubber exporters in 2012, surpassing Malaysia, according to ANRPC. According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude Rubber inventories at the Japanese ports dropped to 5833 tonnes by October 31st from 6244 tonnes on October 20, 2012.

Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia began reducing exports of natural rubber on Oct. 1, and plan to cut overseas sales by 180,000 tons this qtr, says Yium Tavarolit, chief secretary of the International Rubber Consortium. According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Malaysia slashed the production forecast for 2012 by 50000 tonnes to 950000 tonnes.

Technical View:

Even as the trend stays weak, now it requires clearing 17100-17060  to continue the down trend possibly towards 16900-16800 region  initially or more. If prices hold the support at 17100-17060 levels,  could call for a brief pullback towards 17400 or more to 17650.  However, sustained trades above 17650 may diminish the prevailing  negative bias.

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